BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — Indiana’s population will grow by nearly 383,000 residents from 2020 to 2060 — a 5.6% increase over this 40-year stretch — according to projections released by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business.
Matthew Kinghorn. Photo by John Anderson, Indiana University
Growth over this period will be heavily front-loaded, with 60% of these gains taking place by 2030. All told, the state’s population total will climb from 6.79 million residents in 2020 to 7.17 million in 2060.
These numbers — the Indiana Business Research Center’s first set of projections after the 2020 Census population count — indicate that growth will slow significantly in Indiana over the next four decades, said Matt Kinghorn, the center’s senior demographer.
“To underscore how swift and severe this change will be: Indiana’s total population growth over the next 40 years is projected to be lower than the state’s growth between 2000 and 2010,” Kinghorn said.
The Indiana Business Research Center is part of a national network of state data centers and serves as Indiana’s official representative to the U.S. Census Bureau on matters relating to the census and population estimates.
Population change is caused by migration and natural increase, or the difference between the number of births and deaths. Natural increase has been the dominant source of Indiana’s population growth for decades. For example, it accounted for 70% of the state’s growth in the past decade.
As Kinghorn explained, natural increase will quickly shift from Indiana’s primary driver of growth to being a drag on it.
“To some degree, this trend was always inevitable,” he said. “With the aging of the baby boom generation — a cohort that today is between the ages of 60 and 78 — Indiana was sure to see a substantial decline in the natural increase, and with it, a slowdown in population growth.”
The number of births in Indiana has been on a steep and steady decline since 2008. The preliminary total of 79,000 births in 2023 represents a 12% decline compared to 2007. This ranks as the state’s third-lowest annual tally since 1946, and the 2023 fertility rate of 58.9 is Indiana’s lowest mark on record.
At the other end of the age spectrum, Indiana’s life expectancy peaked in 2010 and — except for a modest post-pandemic rebound — has declined since that peak. The primary reason for this is a steady rise in mortality rates among the state’s working-age population.
Carol Rogers. Photo by Indiana University
Indiana’s mortality rate for people age 25 to 54 increased by 24%, from 231.1 per 100,000 residents in 1998 to 287.3 per 100,000 residents in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbated by the continuing drug overdose crisis, fueled mortality rates for this group to much higher levels in 2020 and 2021. The mortality rate for Indiana’s working-age population in 2023 — at 304.2 per 100,000 residents — was 6% higher than it was in 2019.
“Our projections show sharp decline in natural increase over the next 40 years and that the state will begin to see a natural decrease of the population — with deaths outnumbering births — beginning in the 2040s,” Kinghorn said. “In-migration will become Indiana’s sole source of growth.”
Slowing population growth combined with natural decrease “translates into ever-smaller gains in the Indiana labor force,” said Carol Rogers, director of the IBRC. “This is especially true among the prime working and household formation ages of 25 to 54. Indiana will need to exert magnetic attraction to bring in young people from places near and far, which puts us in direct competition with every other state facing slow to no growth.”
Most growth to come in metro areas
Just a handful of metropolitan areas will be responsible for nearly all of Indiana’s population growth. The 11-county Indianapolis metro area will outgrow the state by adding nearly 405,000 residents from 2020 to 2050, a 19.3% increase.
Kinghorn said Hamilton County will continue to lead the state in growth, with an increase of more than 180,500 residents, and likely overtake Allen County and Lake County to become the state’s second most populous county.
The state’s five fastest-growing counties will be suburban Indianapolis counties, including Hamilton County. Boone, Hanco*ck, Hendricks and Johnson counties will each grow by at least 25% by 2050, and Marion County will finally pass the 1 million mark.
Elsewhere across the state, Clark, Warrick, Allen and Bartholomew counties will grow by at least 10%. Lake and St. Joseph counties will see modest gains through 2035 before beginning to see slight population declines. Both counties are projected to reach 2050 with fewer residents than they have today, while 67 of Indiana’s 92 counties will see population losses over the next 30 years.
Indiana is getting older
The aging of baby boomers continues to transform the state, a hallmark of that generation born between 1946 and 1964. Within 10 years, this entire generation will be older than the traditional retirement age; one out of every five Hoosiers will be a senior.
Meanwhile, the under-20 population is set to fall.
“There will be sharp declines in this age group in our midsize and rural counties at the same time the senior population grows larger,” Kinghorn said.
Any growth in the working-age population will occur in metro areas or nearer to them. And this is contingent on people moving to Indiana.
To access the entire population projections data set, view visualizations and read a detailed methodology, visit the STATS Indiana Population Projections topic page. The companion Labor Force Projections are available on the Indiana labor market information website Hoosiers by the Numbers.
